MARCEL MBAMALUPresident Donald Trump’s recent actions have sparked concerns about a potential realignment of U.S. foreign policy, one that may benefit Russian interests at the expense of NATO and global democracy.
From withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement to criticising European allies for their defence spending, Trump’s “America First” policy has created divisions within NATO and weakened Western solidarity. But what does Trump’s Russia pivot mean for the future of global democracy and NATO’s role in maintaining international order?
Join our WhatsApp ChannelThe intricate web of global politics has long been shaped by the interplay between the United States (U.S.), Russia, and China. From Cold War tensions to modern strategic alliances, these relationships continue to evolve, influencing global security, economic stability, and diplomatic engagements.
Today, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine has reignited debates about U.S. foreign policy, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO)’s role, and the growing cooperation between Russia and China in countering Western influence. However, a new concern looms: President Donald Trump’s stance on this geopolitical power struggle. Is the U.S. retreating from its global fight for democracy? And if Russia finds an ally in the U.S. under Trump’s leadership, could NATO and the world order it upholds be at risk?
U.S.-Russia-China relations were shaped by Cold War dynamics. After WWII, the U.S. and Soviet Union emerged as rivals, competing ideologically and militarily until the USSR’s dissolution in 1991. U.S.-China ties were initially strained after the Chinese Communist Party took power in 1949 but improved following the Sino-Soviet split, leading to Nixon’s 1972 visit.
Since 2014, Russia and China have strengthened ties to counter U.S. influence. The U.S. has consistently supported Ukraine, imposing sanctions on Russia after Crimea’s annexation and increasing military aid following Russia’s 2022 invasion. This aligns with U.S. efforts to deter authoritarian aggression and uphold international law.
Despite its stance on collective defence, the U.S.’s current approach towards Russia raises questions about its commitment to these principles.
The Current State of U.S.-Russia, NATO, and Europe Relations
The state of U.S.-Russia, NATO, and European relations has begun taking a new dimension since Donald Trump’s initial presidency in 2017. Trump has expressed admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, questioned NATO’s relevance, and criticised European allies for their defence spending.
Trump’s current policies are consistent with his past actions
Since assuming office in January 2025, President Donald Trump has implemented several policies that suggest a shift in U.S. relations with Russia.
Few minutes after his inauguration on January 20, 2025, Trump signed an executive order to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Agreement. This move could shift global alliances, as Russia has historically been less aggressive in its climate commitments compared to Western nations. By stepping away from international climate efforts, the U.S. may create opportunities for Russia to increase its influence in energy and economic negotiations.
In addition, he also signed an executive order on 21 January 2025, withdrawing the United States from the World Health Organization (WHO). While this decision is not directly linked to Russia, it could weaken Western cooperation on global health initiatives, an area where Russia has sought to expand its influence.
Just on 28 February 2025, Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. The meeting, initially intended to discuss a mining deal, turned tense when Trump accused Zelenskyy of risking global conflict by not pursuing peace with Russia.
Zelenskyy, who, according to reports, was meeting with Trump to convince him not to side with Russian President, then told Trump that there would be “no compromises with a killer on our territory.”
As a result, Trump and Vance reportedly berated Zelenskyy for not expressing gratitude for U.S. aid, leading to the abrupt cancellation of a planned joint press conference and a minerals agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine.
Following this meeting, Trump called for an immediate ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, suggesting that U.S. military aid to Ukraine could be withheld if no progress was made toward peace. This position aligns with Russian interests, as it could weaken Ukraine’s military capabilities and force negotiations on terms potentially favorable to Russia.
Collectively, these actions indicate a potential realignment of U.S. foreign policy that may benefit Russian interests, particularly in reducing military support for Ukraine and reshaping global alliances in ways that could weaken Western unity.
READ ALSO: Zelenskyy Not Ready For Peace, Says Trump After Oval Office Clash
Trump has historically shown reluctance to confront Russia aggressively. For instance, he questioned sanctions on Russia, suggested recognising Crimea as Russian territory.
These positions align with a broader pattern of rhetoric that appears accommodating towards Moscow. While institutional checks during his previous term ensured that sanctions against Russia remained in place, Trump’s current stance has created confusion about U.S. policy coherence and its role in maintaining global peace.
As America’s Move Towards Russia
Trump’s policies could be seen as indirectly favouring Russia by creating divisions within NATO and weakening Western solidarity. This would align with Russia’s strategic goal of reducing U.S. influence in Europe and fracturing transatlantic unity.
First is that Donald Trump’s “America First” policy prioritises U.S. domestic interests over multilateral commitments, including those with NATO, WHO, Climate, and Europe has created a perception of a U.S. pivot away from Europe and closer to Russia.
As America moves towards Russia through Trump, this approach could weaken NATO by undermining the principle of collective defence. Trump’s criticism of European countries for not meeting the 2% gross domestic product (GDP) defence spending target has strained transatlantic unity.
Notably, if Trump succeeds in reducing U.S. military support or questions NATO’s Article 5 (collective defence clause), it could embolden Russian aggression in Europe and destabilise the alliance.
So, What Does Trump Want?
Is there a reason Trump is sidelining Europe, opposing Ukraine, and weakening NATO? Are his actions merely to prioritise domestic over multinational responsibility? Or is he pressuring Europe on issues such as immigration?
Yet, Europe remains heavily dependent on the U.S. for both security and economic stability. For instance, Europe relies on U.S. military assets such as intelligence and missile defence, which are crucial for NATO’s collective defence framework. The conflict in Ukraine has highlighted Europe’s inability to defend itself without U.S. support, underscoring decades of underinvestment in defence capabilities.
Economically, Europe is deeply intertwined with the U.S. through significant trade relations across sectors such as technology and finance. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe has turned to the U.S. for energy supplies, further deepening economic interdependence.
How Europe Should Respond: The Way Forward for Ukraine, NATO, and Europe
To remain relevant, Europe should prioritise strategic autonomy by increasing defence spending and fostering cross-border cooperation. Initiatives such as the European Defence Fund and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) are crucial for modernising capabilities. Economically, Europe needs to diversify supply chains and foster innovation to remain competitive.
Europe should also balance strategic autonomy with strategic interdependence by coordinating with allies such as the U.S. while building its own capabilities. This involves addressing weaknesses in defence, energy, and industrial policy while maintaining unity among member states. By fostering collaboration within the European Union (EU) and with global partners, Europe can strengthen its geopolitical position without compromising transatlantic ties.
This includes continued weapons deliveries, financial aid for reconstruction, and political backing for EU membership. Europe should lead in rebuilding Ukraine’s infrastructure and ensuring accountability for Russian war crimes.
READ ALSO: Russia-Ukraine War: We’re Ready For Talks With Trump – Putin
NATO, on the other hand, must adapt to evolving threats by reinforcing its eastern flank and ensuring members meet defence spending commitments. Strengthening partnerships with non-NATO allies is crucial. The alliance should focus on hybrid warfare capabilities to counter cyberattacks and disinformation.
Dr Mbamalu, a Jefferson Journalism Fellow, Member of the Nigerian Guild of Editors and Media Consultant, is the Publisher of Prime Business Africa (PBA)
Dr. Marcel Mbamalu is a communication scholar, journalist and entrepreneur. He holds a Ph.D in Mass Communication from the University of Nigeria, Nsukka and is the Chief Executive Officer Newstide Publications, the publishers of Prime Business Africa.
A seasoned journalist, he horned his journalism skills at The Guardian Newspaper, rising to the position of News Editor at the flagship of the Nigerian press. He has garnered multidisciplinary experience in marketing communication, public relations and media research, helping clients to deliver bespoke campaigns within Nigeria and across Africa.
He has built an expansive network in the media and has served as a media trainer for World Health Organisation (WHO) at various times in Northeast Nigeria. He has attended numerous media trainings, including the Bloomberg Financial Journalism Training and Reuters/AfDB training on Effective Coverage of Infrastructural Development of Africa.
A versatile media expert, he won the Jefferson Fellowship in 2023 as the sole Africa representative on the program. Dr Mbamalu was part of a global media team that covered the 2020 United State’s Presidential election. As Africa's sole representative in the 2023 Jefferson Fellowships, Dr Mbamalu was selected to tour the United States and Asia (Japan and Hong Kong) as part of a 12-man global team of journalists on a travel grant to report on inclusion, income gaps and migration issues between the US and Asia.
