Dr Gabriel UguruBy Dr Gabriel Uguru
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On Thursday 24 February 2022 the news broke that Russia had attacked Ukraine after days of intense diplomatic activities amidst a backdrop of Russian troop buildup on the Ukrainian border. The ongoing attack on Ukraine was a culmination of events, which saw Russia annex the Crimean peninsula in February 2014 after the overthrow of the then Russian-leaning Ukrainian government of President Viktor Yanukovych in a Ukrainian revolution termed, ‘The Revolution of Dignity’ or simply, ‘The Maidan Revolution’. By the next month of that same year, Russia offered her backing to separatist moves in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine.
In the olden days, other countries were emasculated by military invasions. Hannibal, Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar, Genghis Khan, Napoleon Bonaparte, and Adolf Hitler, were all notable military conquerors. Nowadays, the gentlemanly approach is a combination of politics and economics. But Putin just bucked the trend and spoilt the Western modern method of invasion when he went for good old-fashioned military invasion.
Invasion is not by any means the prerogative of only Nazi Germany and Russia; Britain in the olden days invaded more than half of the world under the guise of colonisation, the USA has in the past invaded other countries either directly or by proxy: Cuba during the Bay of Biscay fiasco, Panama, Granada, Vietnam, Iraq, etc. And when direct military action is not profitable or difficult to execute, many big countries with clout have resorted to both political and economic destabilisations of their victims in order to effect a change of ideology beneficial to that powerful country; Cuba and Venezuela to mention but a few, are victims of such tactics.
Everybody is currently trying to outdo each other in denouncing the war in Ukraine but Russia remained aloof because, she learned from the best on how to ignore the world order and invade other countries – she learned from the USA! Russia’s fanciful excuse for invading Ukraine: to stop the genocide of Russian indigenes living in Ukraine and to check the rise of associated fascism. The USA’s bogus excuse for invading Iraq in 2003: to search for and disarm Iraq of weapons of mass destruction. The British infamous excuse for supporting the USA’s invasion of Iraq in 2003: Iraq has huge armoury of chemical weapons ready for launch within 45 minutes. Excuses, excuses, excuses – might is always right.
End of Cold War Failures By The West
At the end of the Second World War in 1945, the leaders of the victorious side headed by the USA did not treat Germany and Japan as enemies, instead they initiated economic recovery packages that saw both countries able to shake off the woes of destruction in the wake of the war, and easily transitioned into full fledged democracy with buoyant economies – in the case of Germany, it was a stuttering start until after the reunification in 1990. But for Russia, at the end of the Cold War in 1989 (official date is recorded as 1992), the Western leaders then did not have the foresight and magnanimity of their predecessors. Rather than help rebuild Russia and the satellite states both politically and economically, Russian wealths were stolen on industrial scale and the wealth dumped in the West. For example, more than £2B worth of real estates in London are today in the hands of Russian oligarchs.
In addition, Russia was viewed and treated as the enemy and was never fully integrated into the Western culture. At the end of the Cold War, there was a gentlemanly agreement (not committed to paper) between Russia and the West that the latter would not encroach on the former Soviet states. But that agreement has since been flaunted with reckless abandon and most former Soviet republics co-opted into NATO.
Barely 10 years after the end of the Cold War, Russia helplessly watched as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic were admitted into NATO. In 2004, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Estonia, Slovakia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Romania, all joined NATO. By 2009, Albania and Croatia had joined, and just in 2017, Montenegro joined with North Macedonia the latest to join NATO in 2020. All these countries were former Soviet republics. And to add to Russia’s woes, NATO as at 2021 officially recognised Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ukraine and Georgia for future incorporation into NATO.
Under this increasing Western encroachment, Russia felt alarmed and had been letting the West know of her uneasiness but the latter just did not care and carried on regardless.
The last straw that broke the camel’s back and which led to the invasion of Ukraine was the move by Ukraine to join NATO. There was nothing wrong in such a move by Ukraine, as in principle, every country has a right to decide its destiny; but we all know that such lofty principle is an illusion. In actuality, the world militarily, is run by the three military giants: USA, Russia, and China. The other quasi military powers, the EU and Britain unambiguously toe the line of the USA.
To Russia, Ukraine joining NATO is unthinkable as that amounted to holding a dagger at her throat. This is because Ukraine joining NATO automatically meant that NATO would be able to station troops in her soil. Just think of Scotland joining Russia or China and allowing them to station troops in Scotland. The UK would not countenance that! Or think of Canada joining Russia or China and allowing them to station troops in Canada, again, the USA would go mental at such an occurrence – remember the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis when the USA was ready to go to war if the Soviets did not remove their ballistic missiles stationed in Cuba? Stationing missiles in Cuba in 1962 was a retaliatory move by the then Soviet Union to match the USA deployment of missiles in Italy and Turkey; and the USA was up in arms over such move.
Turn the above scenarios to Russia and Ukraine and you will then begin to see the situation clearer. All the while, Russia has sort assurances from the West that Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO and for NATO to pull back its troops from some of the countries neighbouring Russia. These requests have been met with refusals and in some cases bland words. No wonder Russia felt aggrieved. And we all know what such a feeling of grievances in a country often leads to – the emergent of nationalism. That’s what happened in Nazi Germany with Hitler, and just in recent memory; Donald Trump rode the wave of disillusionment in the USA to win the presidency in 2016. So also it was in Russia. Putin rode to power in 1999 on the wave of frustrations and annoyance with the West, and has been stoking that fire so that he has been in power in one form or the other for over 20 years!
The aforementioned picture does not in any way sanction the action Russia is taking in Ukraine but merely to put things into proper perspective. This comes to mind the worn-out proverb that when two elephants fight, the grass suffers. Ukraine inadvertently is now suffering as a result of the test of strength between Russia and the West.
The Unofficial War
Unofficially the West and Russia are now at war, but not a shooting war. It is propaganda, espionage and cyber warfare. Expect both antagonists to paint each other to their respective audience in the darkest colour possible. Once the unofficial war turns to a proper shooting war, you know that it is time to start singing, “Abide with Me,” as both parties have nuclear weapons enough to destroy the world several times over. And you can bet your last penny on it that either or both antagonists will fall back on their nuclear arsenals in the event of a possible defeat. If in doubt, cast your mind back to Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 – reason given then for the use of such an unconventional weapon as the atomic bomb? To shorten the war and save American lives! And that reason as it was advanced in 1945 will also be advanced when the shooting war begins – you can depend on it.
China Choosing Any Sides?
Where does China stand? She has wisely taken no sides and merely called for all sides to exercise restraint, while acknowledging Russia’s security fears and insisting that it be addressed.
China has not forgotten that just yesterday, the West led by the USA classified her as the enemy and did all they could to drag her (China) in the mud in the wake of the Tiananmen Square protest, Hong Kong, Xinjiang conflict and of recent the COVID-19 pandemic. But as they say of politics, a week is a long time. The West right now would be delighted to embrace China in order to weaken Russia. But again, an elephant has a very long memory!
Will China join the fray, and if she does, on whose side? Only time will tell.
Ineffectual Diplomacy and Sanctions
The number of world leaders who headed to the Kremlin for audience with Putin before the attack, was astonishing. But such grandiose diplomacies were doomed to failure right from the start. It was hard to imagine a positive outcome if one party refused to see the other’s point of view except to threaten sanctions.
Let’s examine this overworked word in the arsenal of the West, sanctions. Western leaders instead of addressing Russia’s security fears only came up with warnings of sanctions. Does sanctions work? Hundreds, if not thousands of sanctions imposed by the West in the past on several individuals, countries and institutions around the globe, more often than not had not yielded any measurable expected results. Sanction is not a one-way street; it works both ways.
Everybody who is anybody, is calling for sanctions to cripple Russia; and Western politicians are responding by targeting sanctions on areas that would not hurt their (Western) economy. This is because Russian money is so intertwined in real estates, luxury goods, oil, sports and other products that for the West to disengage completely from Russia, it would be so painful to Western economy that no political leader is willing to take that risk, if any does, the person will be shown the door.
If for instance the West refuses to buy Russian oil, such a move will impact negatively on both Russian and Western economies. Already the price of oil has exceeded $100 per barrel and there is a 30% hike in the price of natural gas in many European countries. The price of iron ore and other industrial metals have gone up; while the Russian ruble has depreciated in value, ditto the Russian bond.
SWIFT is a messaging network service used in over 200 countries by ca. 11,000 banks to make cross-border payments. Many people have suggested that Russian banks be cut off from the service, an idea advanced by the USA back in 2014 when Russia occupied Crimea. But if such a move were to be implemented, Russia would simply migrate to SPFS, a parallel financial transfer system developed by the Central Bank of Russia in 2014 for the sole purpose of countering its disconnection from SWIFT. Therefore, such a move will not only popularise SPFS, but will also encourage capital flight and a run on Western firms and banks heavily dependent on foreign funding.
What if the West decided to cut their nose in order to spite their face by actually making sanctions that hurt the Russian economy as well as its (the Western) economy? Well, Russia is used to hardship, taking all vicissitudes of life with stolid stoicism; but for the West with her rich and “decadent” lifestyle, would it be able to sustain any hardships? Methinks not. Just look at the waves of discontents and complaints in the wake of the recent COVID-19 lockdowns in the West. No such protests were seen in Russia and China, and where such protests occurred, they were few in number and at best just perfunctory.
So, if it comes to a war of attrition between the West and Russia with the attendant hardships, whose citizens will blink first? My money is on the West!
“Hey, man, where’s my latte? And where is the caviar I ordered to go with my champagne? Don’t tell me there’s a war on! Sod the war, I want my comforts and freedom!”
Thank you for the great publication Gabriel!